Simulating the effects of climate change on the distribution of an invasive plant,using a high resolution,local scale,mechanistic approach: challenges and insights

The growing economic and ecological damage associated with biological invasions, which will likely be exacerbated by climate change, necessitates improved projections of invasive spread. Generally, potential changes in species distribution are investigated using climate envelope models; however, the reliability of such models has been questioned and they are not suitable for use at local scales. At this scale, mechanistic models are more appropriate. This paper discusses some key requirements for mechanistic models and utilises a newly developed model (PSS[gt]) that incorporates the influence of habitat type and related features (e.g., roads and rivers), as well as demographic processes and propagule dispersal dynamics, to model climate induced changes in the distribution of an invasive plant (Gunnera tinctoria) at a local scale. A new methodology is introduced, dynamic baseline benchmarking, which distinguishes climate‐induced alterations in species distributions from other potential drivers of change. Using this approach, it was concluded that climate change, based on IPCC and C4i projections, has the potential to increase the spread‐rate and intensity of G. tinctoria invasions. Increases in the number of individuals were primarily due to intensification of invasion in areas already invaded or in areas projected to be invaded in the dynamic baseline scenario. Temperature had the largest influence on changes in plant distributions. Water availability also had a large influence and introduced the most uncertainty in the projections. Additionally, due to the difficulties of parameterising models such as this, the process has been streamlined by utilising methods for estimating unknown variables and selecting only essential parameters.     

Local temperatures inferred from plant communities suggest strong spatial buffering of climate warming across Northern Europe

Recent studies from mountainous areas of small spatial extent (<2500 km²) suggest that fine‐grained thermal variability over tens or hundreds of metres exceeds much of the climate warming expected for the coming decades. Such variability in temperature provides buffering to mitigate climate‐change impacts. Is this local spatial buffering restricted to topographically complex terrains? To answer this, we here study fine‐grained thermal variability across a 2500‐km wide latitudinal gradient in Northern Europe encompassing a large array of topographic complexities. We first combined plant community data, Ellenberg temperature indicator values, locally measured temperatures (LmT) and globally interpolated temperatures (GiT) in a modelling framework to infer biologically relevant temperature conditions from plant assemblages within <1000‐m² units (community‐inferred temperatures: CiT). We then assessed: (1) CiT range (thermal variability) within 1‐km² units; (2) the relationship between CiT range and topographically and geographically derived predictors at 1‐km resolution; and (3) whether spatial turnover in CiT is greater than spatial turnover in GiT within 100‐km² units. Ellenberg temperature indicator values in combination with plant assemblages explained 46–72% of variation in LmT and 92–96% of variation in GiT during the growing season (June, July, August). Growing‐season CiT range within 1‐km² units peaked at 60–65°N and increased with terrain roughness, averaging 1.97 °C (SD = 0.84 °C) and 2.68 °C (SD = 1.26 °C) within the flattest and roughest units respectively. Complex interactions between topography‐related variables and latitude explained 35% of variation in growing‐season CiT range when accounting for sampling effort and residual spatial autocorrelation. Spatial turnover in growing‐season CiT within 100‐km² units was, on average, 1.8 times greater (0.32 °C km^?1) than spatial turnover in growing‐season GiT (0.18 °C km^?1). We conclude that thermal variability within 1‐km² units strongly increases local spatial buffering of future climate warming across Northern Europe, even in the flattest terrains.     

CYP1A1, GSTM1 and GSTT1 polymorphisms and lung cancer: a pooled analysis of gene–gene interactions

Gene–environment interactions have been extensively studied in lung cancer. It is likely that several genetic polymorphisms cooperate in increasing the individual risk. Therefore, the study of gene–gene interactions might be important to identify high-susceptibility subgroups. GSEC is an initiative aimed at collecting available data sets on metabolic polymorphisms and the risks of cancer at several sites and performing pooled analyses of the original data. Authors of published papers have provided original data sets. The present paper refers to gene–gene interactions in lung cancer and considers three polymorphisms in three metabolic genes: CYP1A1, GSTM1 and GSTT1. The present analyses compare the gene–gene interactions of the CYP1A1*2A, GSTM1 and GSTT1 polymorphisms from studies on lung cancer conducted in Europe and the USA between 1991 and 2000. Only Caucasians have been included. The data set includes 1466 cases and 1488 controls. The only clear-cut association was found with CYP1A1*2A. This association remained unchanged after stratification by polymorphisms in other genes (with an odds ratio [OR] of approximately 2.5), except when interaction with GSTM1 was considered. When the OR for CYP1A1*2A was stratified according to the GSTM1 genotype, the OR was increased only among the subjects who had the null (homozygous deletion) GSTM1 genotype (OR=2.8, 95% CI=0.9–8.4). The odds ratio for the interactive term (CYP1A1*2A by GSTM1) in logistic regression was 2.7 (95% CI=0.5–15.3). An association between lung cancer and the homozygous CYP1A1*2A genotype is confirmed. An apparent and biologically plausible interaction is suggested between this genotype and GSTM1.     

Dairy wastewater polluting load and treatment performances of an industrial three-cascade-reactor plant

An industrial three-cascade-reactor plant treating 45 m³ d^?1 of dairy wastewater (DW) was monitored for approx. one year to investigate the effect of variable daily influent loads. It removed more than 85% COD, NH₄-N and non-ionic and anionic surfactants from DW within the loads 7–24, 0.4–2.3, 0.4–0.7 and 0.1–0.5 kg d^?1, respectively; NH₄-N removal, in particular, was almost quantitative. Although the degradation of the above parameters below the lower load thresholds declined to 78.7, 87.5, 50.2 and 64.7%, respectively, their residual concentrations met effluent discharge standards. The biomass settling properties, assessed as sludge volume index (SVI), were satisfactory (generally lower than 150 ml g^?1) regardless of the organic load of the influent. The depletion of the pollutant load took mainly place in the first reactor albeit a significant contribution to the removal of the slowly degradable organic matter fraction was given by the two subsequent reactors.     

Environmental gradients shift the direction of the relationship between native and alien plant species richness

Aim

To assess how environmental, biotic and anthropogenic factors shape native–alien plant species richness relationships across a heterogeneous landscape.

Location

Banks Peninsula, New Zealand.

Methods

We integrated a comprehensive floristic survey of over 1200 systematically located 6 × 6 m plots, with corresponding climate, environmental and anthropogenic data. General linear models examined variation in native and alien plant species richness across the entire landscape, between native‐ and alien‐dominated plots, and within separate elevational bands.

Results

Across all plots, there was a significant negative correlation between native and alien species richness, but this relationship differed within subsets of the data: the correlation was positive in alien‐dominated plots but negative in native‐dominated plots. Within separate elevational bands, native and alien species richness were positively correlated at lower elevations, but negatively correlated at higher elevations. Alien species richness tended to be high across the elevation gradient but peaked in warmer, mid‐ to low‐elevation sites, while native species richness increased linearly with elevation. The negative relationship between native and alien species richness in native‐dominated communities reflected a land‐use gradient with low native and high alien richness in more heavily modified native‐dominated vegetation. In contrast, native and alien richness were positively correlated in very heavily modified alien‐dominated plots, most likely due to covariation along a gradient of management intensity.

Main conclusions

Both positive and negative native–alien richness relationships can occur across the same landscape, depending on the plant community and the underlying human and environmental gradients examined. Human habitat modification, which is often confounded with environmental variation, can result in high alien and low native species richness in areas still dominated by native species. In the most heavily human modified areas, dominated by alien species, both native and alien species may be responding to similar underlying gradients.

     

Intraspecific competition replaces interspecific facilitation as abiotic stress decreases: The shifting nature of plant–plant interactions

Plant–plant interactions change depending on environmental conditions, shifting from competition to facilitation when the stress is high. In addition to these changes, the relevance of intraspecific compared to interspecific interactions may also shift as abiotic stress does. We inferred intra- and interspecific plant–plant interactions of the cushion plant Hormathophylla spinosa as related to the dominant shrub Juniperus sabina in two sites with contrasting abiotic conditions (a slope with high-stress conditions vs. a valley bottom with milder conditions) in a Mediterranean high mountain. Specifically, we studied the spatial patterns and several variables related to plant performance (plant size and form, non-structural carbohydrate – NSC – concentrations and radial growth) of H. spinosa.The spatial pattern varied depending on site conditions. H. spinosa plants were positively associated with juniper in the high-stress slope site, probably through higher establishment rates due to the amelioration of soil conditions. In contrast, in the milder valley site H. spinosa establishment occurred mostly in open areas. Age structure, inferred from annual rings, reflected a massive establishment event in the whole study area which occurred 30–50 years ago. Canopy variables and radial growth were density dependent: both were negatively affected by the high density of H. spinosa individuals in the valley, but favoured by junipers on the slope. Interestingly, NSCs showed the opposite pattern, suggesting lower investment in growth by H. spinosa plants in the valley than on the slope.Our results reinforce the strong links existing between intra- and interspecific relationships and the need to include both when studying the influence of abiotic conditions on plant–plant interactions. This approach enabled us to detect that the direction and intensity of plant–plant interactions may shift at different ecological levels. Particularly interesting was the finding that optimal sites at the population level may not necessarily be the sites showing maximum individual performance.     

No evidence for rapid evolution of seed dispersal ability in range edge populations of the invasive species Senecio madagascariensis

Theory suggests that range edge populations of invading plants and animals may experience runaway selection for increased dispersal ability. This theory has been supported by field data for cane toads in Australia, and for Senecio inaequidens in Europe. In this study, we asked whether range edge populations of Senecio madagascariensis (Asteraceae), an invasive plant in eastern Australia, displayed higher dispersal ability that did populations from the established range. We measured 1363 diaspores from 33 populations. There was no significant difference in dispersal potential between populations from the range edge, and those from the established range (P = 0.19). We also used a glasshouse study to determine whether the range edge populations differed from populations in the established range in three critical life history traits: germination success, plant size and time to first reproduction. The only significant difference was for higher germination in range edge populations. The null result for dispersal ability is excellent news for land managers, as this is the first published evidence that selection for ever‐increasing dispersal rates is not ubiquitous in invading populations.     

Sub‐lethal effects of monoterpenes on reproduction by mountain pine beetles

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